Gaps in the Subsidy Removal Plan

The frustrations of Nigerians over government’s plan to remove fuel subsidy are understandable. It is one proposal they would rather not hear, at least for now, because of the negative spiral effects it would visit on the average Nigerian. The uproar it generated when President Goodluck Jonathan indicated, in a letter to the National Assembly, that subsidy on petroleum products would go from the 2012 fiscal year, was therefore expected. Government’s promise to cushion its harsh effects by injecting the savings into provision of critical infrastructure has also made little impression. Such a promise is anything but new; it is one of those promises they regard as empty and which will be, as has been the case in the past, observed in the breach.

The rationale for the new policy as marshaled by the President is plausible, even if hapless Nigerians have heard it all before. The Government spends a large amount of its resources on oil subsidy, the bulk of which ends up benefitting only a few shylock businessmen who hold the sector by the jugular. This time, the policy of fiscal consolidation is expected to free up about N1.2 trillion in savings. And since the action usually triggers a series of harsh economic effects especially on the poor, government promises to utilize the funds for the provision of safety nets for them.

These may be soothing words, but many believe that gaps still exist in the Jonathan proposal. The closing of such gaps may well be the key to understanding – and probably accepting – the subsidy removal proposal. The pessimism of Nigerians must be understood from the series of bureaucratic rigmarole over the years, on the subsidy issue. No people have had a more pathetic story to tell on their petroleum sector. They have not forgotten that several times in the past, they were subjected to brazen deceit by their leaders who have successively failed on their promises to properly address the rot in the oil sector, arguably the nation’s economic mainstay.

The gaping hole is in the details. Why has the President been unable to break down, in as much detail as possible, the specific projects he intends to invest the savings in? Nigerians have heard of “investments in critical infrastructure” so much that it has since lost efficacy. They have not forgotten that after Nigeria exited the Paris and London club of creditors towards the end of the Obasanjo regime, they were promised that savings from the debt servicing would be invested in critical sectors of the economy such as infrastructural development. Five years down the road, the huge savings has not translated into any major development in the nation’s social infrastructure. The Obama jobs plan, all of a thousand odd pages of written detail, is a good example on how government should present an argument. For Jonathan, however, something like that may be a tall order, but a plan he still needs to provide.

Since the revelation was made, opposition has increasingly mounted against it, for good reasons.  Labour leaders, opposition parties, prominent citizens have come down hard on the plan, which many describe as ill-advised.  Former Petroleum Minister Prof Tam David-West, even questioned the existence of any subsidy on fuel, calling the proposal a lie and a fraud. The National Publicity Secretary of the Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) Osita Okechukwu tied the decision to Jonathan’s inability to fight corruption, which many believe, is at the centre of the issue of oil subsidy. Why should the world’s seventh largest oil producer with over two million barrels of crude oil production per day, import 80% of the finished petroleum products? Why should the country’s four refineries that have, between 1999 and 2010, gulped over $2 billion on rehabilitation alone, still run below 40% of installed capacity? Why should the rehabilitation of Nigeria’s refineries become a conduit pipe to siphon public funds?

However, for having the nerve to take on this issue at all, President Jonathan deserves some commendation, knowing that the popular mood is tilted against it. He jolly well could have sat out his tenure, allowing sleeping dogs to lie. His handlers must have warned that he risks discrediting his record of having stabilized the oil sector, if this new policy runs into a fiasco. Yes, he deserves commendation for this hard, seemingly unpopular decision and one must appreciate the passion and purposefulness with which he pursues this plan. For one, any discerning Nigerian or even a lay economist knows that the economy cannot sustain the present regime of fraud and waste that oil subsidy connotes. That this practice has been sustained over time does little to justify its continuation at this critical moment, but again it depends on whether government keeps its promise. Anything short of following this promise to the letter would definitely inflict more economic grief on the people, and threaten the political stability of the nation. As someone has said, the consequences of failure on the President’s part will far outweigh whatever economic gains in the new policy.

As has been pointed out, one thing still lacking in the plan is a graphic detail –call it a road map if you will – of how the savings will be utilized. After years of deceitful promises, any Nigerian leader needs more than mere words to convince a pessimistic populace. To this end, therefore, Jonathan without a clear road map spelling out the whats, hows, and the wheres the savings will go makes this policy, however plausible, harder to believe. Even Abacha of a military regime that supposedly owes the people little explanation, had to detail how his oil savings would be spent. The Presidential Task Force which he set up to utilize them, has since become a reference point in successful government intervention. At this time, that model comes highly recommended.

Jonathan: A Mandate and its Challenges

In a few days, Goodluck Jonathan will make history in many ways. Although his bag is already filled with records of previous incidents in which the ‘hand of God’ decided his climb on the political ladder, May 29, 2011 will even be more significant. On that day, when he is sworn in as Nigeria’s President, he will be the first from the oil-producing Niger Delta to be so democratically installed. The first such succession in Nigeria’s history by a former Vice President, the May 29 event will indeed put the icing on Jonathan’s political cake.
However, the road to a full tenure for him was not laid with roses. The campaigns that preceded the presidential election on April 16, was perhaps the country’s most bitter. His entry into the contest on September 18, 2010 had elicited strong resistance from certain Northern politicians who believed that it was a negation of the zoning arrangement in the Peoples Democratic Party. Coming four months after he assumed presidential powers following the death of President Umaru Yar’adua, a Northerner, their argument was that another Northerner should have been allowed to pick the PDP ticket.
If the issue of zoning of the PDP presidential ticket was rancorous, the extent to which his credential for the position was questioned, was downright ridiculous. To his critics, Jonathan’s candidacy was driven more by sentiments than reason. The president had done nothing on record to support his aspiration. Even his comportment was was an issue more important that what he represents, or has the potential to achieve.

Of course, such critics' opinions were far from objective. The period spent by the President after taking over the mantle, was too short for any meaningful achievement or a fundamental departure from what he inheritated. Even at that, any rational analysis should reveal that he had taken some decisive steps in the critical areas of power, electoral reform, education, anti-corruption and the Niger Delta. In any case, he went ahead to run an issue-based campaign across the length and breadth of the country based on well articulated programmes. His campaign, devoid of subterfuge, muck-raking and distractive name-calling was a departure from the 'norm'.
On April 16, his programs and his Pan Nigerian disposition were convincing enough for the electorate. In a country well known for divisive national politics, Jonathan’s triumph in the presidential poll, made a profound statement about the new Nigeria that is evolving: one in which the spirit of national reawakening has become pervasive. Never before had a presidential election broken all regional, ethnic, traditional and religious boundaries in the search for a common goal. Perhaps for the first time in recent history, Nigerians were bequeathing in one man, a mandate that was not only truly national, it came close to fulfilling the long-cherished dream of national oneness and purpose.
Beyond history making, however, the Jonathan mandate comes with unique challenges. The economy, in spite of government disputations to the contrary, is anything but healthy. The real sector on which a great majority of the citizens survive, is comatose while unemployment is on a record high. Power supply which drives every modern economy may have improved marginally in the past year, but it is still nowhere near the people’s expectations. The power production level is neither commensurate with the huge funding of the past three years, nor what he promised while unveiling the road map for the sector in the last quarter of 2010.

The political sector is not too different, even if it is an area the administration has made the most noticeable impact. Jonathan’s appointment of Dr Attahiru Jega as head of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the unprecedented independence and adequate funding granted the electoral body have all paid off well and vindicated him, going by the rating of Elections 2011. However, the promise of full electoral reform is still far from delivered.
The president’s decision to set up nine new universities is a bold move to address the deficit in that sector, but this is just salutary. Like roads and other public infrastructure, the decay in Nigeria’s educational system goes down to the elementary. The rot in our tertiary education system is deep indeed, so much that almost all the indices that qualify them as institutions of higher learning are preponderantly negative.

Of course the huge budgetary provisions for tackling these problems hardly translate to any meaningful impact due to the endemic issue of corruption in our public life. Any government that must succeed, must do more than pay lip service to the issue of tackling corruption. So far, President Jonathan has ensured that the nation’s anti-corruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) enjoys a free hand in fighting crime, but that may not count for much if Nigerians are not convinced that corrupt public officers are effectively brought to book.There must be the political will to do this, beyond the limits of the EFCC.
Key to the successful implementation of those lofty programmes he enumerated during the campaigns is the appointment of a capable team to assist him. Over the years, the assembly of political appointees easily indicates how far-reaching an incoming government’s performance will be. So far, several suggestions have gone out to the President on the choice of his aides. People expect that the President would put round pegs to man the round holes. More voices appear to favour technocrats and knowledgeable Nigerians for the ministries and government parastatals, especially those that are key for driving national development. Whether he can get the key stakeholders, mainly his party leaders and state governors to endorse the preference for technocrats against the old practice of rewarding political foot soldiers, is yet to be seen. Already, the President is facing fire from South East zone stakeholders over the arrangement adopted by the PDP for sharing of top political positions in the incoming federal administration among the six geo-political zones.
The formula, which allocates the post of Secretary to the Federal Government to the zone, is adjudged unfair to the Igbo. They insist that the zone deserves better, either as compensation for their whole-hearted support of Jonathan in the April election, or for the fact that Igbo is one of the Big Three ethnic groupings that form the tripod on which Nigeria stands. They have, with enough justification, voiced their dissatisfaction with the SGF offer on the ground that the position is least among those of the five other zones in the national order of protocol.
As the next few days unfold, the world will watch Jonathan more keenly, on how he tackles those challenges.The task of addressing the national problems begging for attention, is as important as restoring confidence in a polity suffering from bruises of divisive politicking. However, the President’s mandate is unequivocal about whose duty it is. So much has been given and Nigerians are justified in expecting from him, more than they ever did with his predecessors. Jonathan must hit the ground running on May 29.

Note: This article was first published in Thisday newspaper, just before the President was sworn in on May 29, 2011

The National Chairman PDP Deserves

Since January 20, 2011 when its elected Chairman, Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo resigned under controversial circumstances, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has literally been adrift. The party which went into the national elections under the leadership of Alhaji Bello Halliru Mohammed as Acting National Chairman may have won the April presidential elections but its overall electoral performance slided down the scale. Following the appointment of Alhaji Mohammed into the Federal cabinet by President Goodluck Jonathan, Alhaji Kawu Baraje, its National Secretary, assumed duty as the party’s second acting National Chairman in six months. The need for a full term leadership has never been more urgent.

A lot has been written about the qualities expected of the new leader which from every indication, the North East zone will produce. The party’s decision to concede the position to the zone had quickly produced a motley crowd of aspirants, ranging from Bamanga Tukur to Hassan Adamu (Wakili Adamawa), from Architect Ibrahim Bunu to Dr Shettima Mustapha and Alhaji Gambo Lawan. At this defining moment when the PDP – Nigeria’s foremost political party -- stands the chance to either reinvent itself through a new leadership, or risk being relegated to the background, it is important to look deeply at the men jostling for the post.

Of the lot, Alhaji Gambo Lawan clearly stands out, the major reason that this piece focuses primarily on him. Not only does he belong to the younger generation that many have advocated should mount the leadership of the party at this crucial moment, he is probably the only one with a solid national party leadership record. While the others are eminently qualified for the job in their own rights, there is no gainsaying the fact that the PDP is a sick party in desperate need of young, focused, energetic leadership. Alhaji Lawan who has exhibited the desire and capacity to reconcile its aggrieved membership, appears fully primed for the task of re-launching the party to its leading position.

The charismatic former Chairman of Maiduguri Metropolitan Council under the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and former Deputy National Chairman of the National Conference of Local Government Chairmen of Nigeria (now ALGON),  has over the years risen from grassroots political leadership to national prominence. His profile had risen steadily within the state as well as within the defunct SDP that in 1993 he was appointed member of the National Campaign Committee for the Moshood Abiola- Babagana Kingibe Presidential ticket, playing a commendable role in the campaign that resulted in the impressive showing of the party in the entire North East zone.

On the death of Abiola and the formation of five political parties by the Sani Abacha regime, it came as little surprise that Alhaji Lawan chose to join the Grassroots Democratic Movement, (GDM) for which he was later elected its National Chairman from 1995-1998. It was a befitting position for a political strategist famed for his organizational skill as well as his reach to the grassroots. In just three years, Alhaji Lawan was able to reposition the GDM, considered the weakest of the five political parties on inception. His policies resonated well with Nigerians at every level, and from an initial position of weakness, the party made appreciable inroads in states and constituencies across the country in the local and national elections of 1996-1998. Little wonder that in recognition of his sterling leadership qualities, all the five registered political parties of that era (GDM, UNCP, CNC, NCPN and DPN) chose him as Chairman/Leader of their joint forum.

 A foundation member of the Peoples Democratic Party and member of its Borno State and North East Zonal caucus, Alhaji Gambo Lawan is a veteran of national political campaigns where his grassroots mobilization efforts and political negotiating skills are found useful. He was one of the arrowheads that campaigned for Barnabas Gemade’s emergence as National Chairman of the PDP. As Chairman of the Publicity Committee of the Campaign, he traversed every nook and cranny of the country to sell the Gemade candidature to party leaders and members across Nigeria.  On Gemade’s eventual victory, he was made his Special Adviser on National Assembly matters. Subsequently, when the PDP decided to bring on a new national leadership in 2001, the lot also fell on Alhaji Lawan to lead the campaign for Chief Audu Ogbe as Chairman /Director-General of his Unity Team Campaign Organisation.

He has repeatedly been called upon to bring his wealth of political experience to bear on the party’s successive presidential electioneering campaigns, as member of the Campaign Committee of Obasanjo-Atiku tickets of 1999 and 2003, the Presidential Campaign Committee for Yar’adua-Goodluck ticket of 2007 as well as the trail-blazing Presidential Campaign Committee of Goodluck- Sambo ticket for the April 2011 elections. Though his party has never produced the governor of his Borno state, he has remained steadfast and loyal, even as little patronage has come his way. Apart from the period between January 2001and 2003 when the government of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo appointed him Chairman of the Board of Directors, Warri Refining and Petro-Chemical Company, Alhaji Lawan has remained in private business. He sits on the boards of several going concerns ranging from multinational corporations to the media. He has won several awards among which is Nigeria’s Local Government Chairman of the Year (1991), and has been honoured with the keys to the City of Kansas, an honour that only a few non-US citizens are privileged to receive.

Surely, if Alhaji Lawan’s antecedents are considered, the search for the PDP national chairman will be clearer. Not only will he bring integrity into the party leadership, he will bring his wealth of experience as an organizer to bear on its national politics. His choice will also correct the imbalance in the North East, in which Borno has consistently been relegated when national positions allocated to the zone are to be filled. For a man well known as a stickler for rules and procedure, he will bring about the much-needed party discipline, unity and internal democracy that majority of PDP members yearn for, in the running of its affairs.